数据中心铜需求爆发式增长，大摩看好铜价创历史新高

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the demand for copper, particularly driven by data centers, is expected to push copper prices to historical highs, with a significant supply-demand gap anticipated by 2026 [1][4]. Group 2 - The report predicts that global copper consumption by data centers will reach approximately 500,000 tons in 2025, increasing to 740,000 tons in 2026, contributing 0.6 percentage points to global copper demand growth [2]. - By 2027, data center copper consumption is expected to reach 1 million tons (2.8% of total demand), and by 2028, it could further increase to 1.3 million tons (3.3%), with a compound annual growth rate of 40% [2]. - The surge in copper demand is primarily driven by generative artificial intelligence, with data center electricity consumption projected to rise significantly, leading to increased copper usage in power distribution [2]. Group 3 - Copper plays an irreplaceable role in data centers, primarily used for power distribution, accounting for about 75% of its usage, and remains preferred over alternatives like aluminum due to its superior conductivity and reliability [3]. - Despite emerging technologies attempting to replace copper cables, the reliability of copper connections remains significantly higher, ensuring its continued dominance in data center applications [3]. Group 4 - On the supply side, global copper mine supply is expected to see minimal growth by 2026, while demand driven by data centers and energy storage systems is projected to grow at a rate of 1.8%, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.7% from 2025 to 2028 [4]. - The report forecasts a copper market deficit of 260,000 tons in 2025, expanding to 600,000 tons in 2026, which is expected to drive LME copper prices to a historical high of $12,200 per ton in Q2 2026 [4]. - Increased investment in the power grid is anticipated to further support copper demand, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 7% in copper demand for the grid sector before 2030 [4]. Group 5 - The rapid development of data centers and their rigid demand for copper will further solidify copper's status as a critical mineral, prompting governments and companies to enhance the security of copper supply chains [5]. - Despite potential risks such as power bottlenecks and technological substitutions, the non-linear growth trend in data center electricity demand and the ongoing supply-demand imbalance are expected to continue supporting rising copper prices [5].