普来仕：市场调日本央行加息预期，2026年或加息两次

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Pruce expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates twice in 2026, with the first increase potentially occurring in December 2025, ahead of previous market expectations [1][2] - The market has adjusted its expectations for the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike timeline, moving from January 2026 to December 2025, with an initial forecast of one rate hike in 2026 [1][2] - Pruce anticipates a more aggressive approach from the Bank of Japan, citing that the real interest rates in Japan remain in negative territory [1][2] Group 2 - The market is increasingly less focused on the correlation between US-Japan interest rate differentials, suggesting that reduced carry trade returns will diminish the attractiveness of shorting the yen [1][2] - The short-term movement of the yen is expected to be influenced by the outcomes of the Bank of Japan's meetings, with a temporary weakness anticipated despite market expectations of a non-hawkish forward guidance from the central bank [1][2]