南非顶尖基金经理预判：本土非资源股被严重低估 2026年至少要涨35%

Core Viewpoint - South African non-commodity stocks are currently undervalued, presenting a potential rebound opportunity in 2025 as they lag behind local bonds and overall stock indices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The South African benchmark stock index has increased over 50% in USD terms this year, driven by soaring precious metal prices, outperforming European, emerging markets, and US indices [1] - Local government bonds, measured by the ALBI index, have returned 38%, with the yield on ten-year rand bonds dropping by a quarter from its April peak to 8.36% [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - John Bickard, manager of Ninety One's Value Fund, highlights that local banks, retail, and industrial stocks are significantly lagging, creating investment opportunities [6] - The Value Fund has achieved an average annual return of nearly 17% over the past decade, ranking as the fifth-best fund in South Africa, excluding commodity funds [6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Signs of improvement in South Africa's economy include a reduction in load-shedding, stabilization of state port and rail operations, and an upgrade in credit outlook by S&P Global Ratings [5][7] - The rand has appreciated by 13% against the USD this year, alongside a slowdown in inflation, supporting a positive economic trajectory [7] Group 4: Fund Strategy - The Value Fund has increased its allocation to local stocks to 50%, significantly above the benchmark index's allocation of approximately 35% [9] - The fund's portfolio includes about 50% in mid-cap companies with a dividend yield close to 6%, and around 20% in large local companies like Bidvest Group Ltd. and Woolworths Holdings Ltd., which have dividend yields of about 4% [9] Group 5: Future Projections - Bickard anticipates that as investors recognize the improving economic growth and declining discount rates, local stocks could see price increases of 35% to 40%, with potential upside of up to 50% [11] - Investing in South African stocks is viewed as a cheaper indirect way to gain exposure to gold and platinum assets, with limited downside risk and considerable upside potential [11]