全球白银市场正迎来历史性时刻，短短数周内开启连续刷新纪录的上涨行情

Core Viewpoint - The global silver market is experiencing a historic surge, with prices reaching new highs due to supply-demand imbalances, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and increased investment inflows [1][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movement - On December 17, 2025, spot silver prices broke through key levels of $65 and $66 per ounce, reaching a peak of $66.51 per ounce, marking a historical high [3][4]. - Year-to-date, silver prices have increased by approximately 120% to 130%, significantly outpacing gold's rise of about 60% [3][4]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The surge in silver prices is attributed to three main factors: supply-demand imbalance, changes in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, and a significant influx of investment [4][5]. - Supply constraints are evident as 70%-80% of global silver comes from by-product mining, limiting the ability to increase production in response to price rises [5][6]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, including three reductions in 2025, have made silver more attractive as a non-yielding asset [7]. - Investment demand has surged, with notable increases in ETF holdings and futures positions, reflecting a strong interest in silver [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term projections indicate potential for price corrections, while medium to long-term perspectives remain optimistic due to ongoing supply shortages and robust industrial demand [9][10]. - Industrial demand for silver is expected to grow significantly, driven by sectors such as solar energy, electric vehicles, and AI, which are reshaping the traditional demand structure [12][13]. - The global silver supply deficit is projected to widen, with estimates suggesting a shortfall of 95 million ounces in 2025, increasing to 118 million ounces in 2026 [13][14]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to exercise caution in chasing high prices and to focus on risk management, particularly given the current high price levels [15][16]. - Monitoring macroeconomic indicators, such as Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical developments, is crucial for adjusting investment strategies [16].