Ultima Markets：特朗普的下一任美联储主席：降息承诺下的经济现实与独立性挑战

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's intention to appoint a new Federal Reserve chair who supports significant interest rate cuts raises concerns about the independence of the central bank and the balance of power in monetary policy [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Trump emphasizes the need for a Fed chair who believes in "substantial" rate cuts to alleviate mortgage burdens for American homeowners [1]. - Current candidates for the Fed chair, including Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and Christopher Waller, are believed to support lowering rates from the current 3.5%-3.75% range, but none have committed to extreme low rates as suggested by Trump [1][2]. - Despite adjustments in the Fed's policy rates over the past year, mortgage rates have remained stable between 6.3%-6.4% since Labor Day, indicating the complexity of monetary policy transmission [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Independence - Trump's public statements challenge the long-standing tradition of respecting the Fed's independence, suggesting he should have a say in interest rate decisions [3]. - The pressure on the Fed reflects a broader global challenge to central bank independence, especially during economic slowdowns when political figures seek quick monetary relief [3]. - The independence of the Fed is crucial for ensuring that monetary policy serves long-term economic interests rather than short-term political pressures [4]. Group 3: Economic Context - The U.S. economy is at a delicate juncture, with inflation still above target and a resilient labor market, necessitating a careful balance in the Fed's decision-making [3]. - Trump's desire for significant rate cuts, if disconnected from economic fundamentals, could undermine his goal of reducing mortgage rates and potentially lead to future inflation risks [3][4]. - The outcome of the Fed chair selection process will not only influence interest rate trends but also reflect the resilience of key institutions amid increasing political pressures [4].