蔡昉：改善收入分配是打破消费制约、推动经济增长的关键

Core Viewpoint - The key to breaking the current constraints on consumption demand and promoting economic growth lies in improving income distribution and raising income levels [3][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumption - Consumption demand is currently a critical constraint on economic growth, and the level of consumption is dependent on income and income distribution [3][4]. - International experience indicates that as countries transition from middle-income to high-income status, the consumption rate needs to increase significantly, by about 20 percentage points [3][5]. - China's current consumption rate is approximately 39%, which is below the requirements for higher development stages, indicating a need for improvement [3][5]. Group 2: Income Distribution and Policy Recommendations - The 20th National Congress has proposed implementing a plan to increase income for urban and rural residents, aiming to create an olive-shaped distribution pattern [4][5]. - The current Gini coefficient in China is about 0.465, and the goal is to reduce it to below 0.4 by 2035, which is considered a more equitable level of income distribution [3][5][6]. - To improve income distribution, it is essential to enhance human capital through a lifelong education and training system, eliminate employment discrimination, and strengthen the redistributive capacity of taxation [6][8]. Group 3: Urban-Rural Income Gap - The urban-rural income gap has been narrowing since 2008, but the current income ratio remains around 2.3 to 2.4, which is still high by international standards [6][7]. - The goal is to reduce the urban-rural income ratio to below 2 by 2035, alongside improving basic public services [6][7]. Group 4: Structural Issues in Income Distribution - The overall income gap is influenced by rural internal disparities, urban internal disparities, and the urban-rural gap, with urban internal disparities showing an increasing trend [7]. - There is a need to increase the proportion of labor compensation in the initial distribution and the share of residents' income in national income, which have not yet returned to the levels seen in the early 1990s [6][7]. Group 5: Government's Role in Redistribution - The government must play a more active role in redistributing income, as the current tax system's redistributive effect is still below that of many OECD countries [8]. - Increasing government spending as a percentage of GDP is negatively correlated with the Gini coefficient, suggesting that a higher spending ratio could improve income distribution [8].