集邦咨询：DDR5高获利放大产能排挤效应 2026年HBM3e定价动能同步转强

Core Insights - The recent supply-demand imbalance in the memory market has led to a rapid increase in Conventional DRAM prices, while HBM3e prices have also risen due to increased GPU and ASIC orders, although the average selling price (ASP) gap between HBM3e and DDR5 is expected to narrow significantly over the next year [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - TrendForce indicates that NVIDIA will initiate procurement discussions with major DRAM suppliers for 2026 in May 2025, with initial HBM3e prices expected to be significantly lower than 2025 levels due to buyer-led pricing [1] - Starting in Q3 2025, the memory market is anticipated to experience a rapid reversal in supply-demand dynamics, driven by stronger-than-expected AI-related server demand, leading cloud service providers (CSPs) to increase their DDR5 inventory and set procurement plans for 2026-2027 [1] Group 2: Price Trends - By Q4 2025, the contract price for Server DDR5 is expected to increase significantly, exceeding market expectations, which will enhance wafer profitability and narrow the price gap with HBM3e [1] - HBM3e prices, which were previously four to five times higher than Server DDR5, are projected to narrow to one to two times higher by the end of 2026 [1] - As Conventional DRAM profitability rises, some suppliers are shifting capacity towards DDR5, providing more room for HBM3e price increases [2]