今晚，2025年美国最后一份CPI出炉：围绕3%关口拉锯，“2字头”仍是市场最大期待

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the upcoming release of the November CPI data by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which is expected to show a year-over-year inflation increase to 3.1%, slightly above September's 3.0% [1] - Analysts warn that the report may not be "clean" due to the absence of October data, which complicates interpretation and may increase market volatility [2][3] - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding the November inflation data, with some analysts predicting a rise to 3.1% while others, like Interactive Brokers, anticipate a lower figure of 2.9% [4] Group 2 - The significance of the CPI report lies in its potential to validate existing judgments by the Federal Reserve, with implications for future monetary policy [7] - If inflation returns to the 2% range, it could boost risk appetite and open up opportunities for a year-end rally in the stock market; conversely, if it stabilizes above 3%, it would reinforce the narrative of prolonged high interest rates [5][6] - The report's data collection limitations may lead to underestimations of holiday discount impacts on November inflation, particularly in categories like clothing and home goods [9]