欧盟松绑燃油车，车企却回不去了？数百亿已投，电动化终局难改

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission proposed to abandon the 2035 deadline for a complete transition to electric vehicles, allowing traditional automakers more time to sell hybrid models, although the long-term future of the industry remains electric vehicles due to significant sunk costs already invested [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The new proposal allows plug-in hybrid vehicles and some traditional internal combustion engine models to remain legal after 2035, marking a significant shift in the EU's regulatory environment [1]. - A new category for small electric vehicles is proposed, providing additional emission credits for models produced in Europe [1]. - This policy shift creates a divergence from the U.S. path, where support for electric vehicles has been withdrawn [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The policy change provides a "breathing space" for automakers, but experts warn that the uncertainty poses challenges for companies that have already allocated capital based on previous regulations [2][4]. - The adjustment allows hybrid technology to play a crucial role in the next decade, giving European automakers more options and competitive opportunities [3]. - Despite the short-term benefits for traditional technologies, the long-term capital logic towards electrification remains unchanged [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Market analysts express caution regarding the long-term impact of the policy change on actual sales, with predictions indicating that by 2035, electric vehicles will only account for 62% of sales due to doubts about the enforcement of the ban [3]. - The slowdown in the transition to electrification provides time for building charging infrastructure, which is currently a major barrier to electric vehicle adoption [3]. Group 4: Investment Risks - The sudden policy shift is a setback for aggressive transitioning automakers, as investments based on the previous internal combustion engine ban now face extended payback periods or strategic misalignment [4]. - Companies like Ford have announced significant asset write-downs and are seeking tighter collaborations to share risks, such as their partnership with Renault to develop small electric vehicles [4]. Group 5: Demand for Policy Certainty - Industry executives are calling for greater policy certainty, expressing frustration over the frequent regulatory changes that complicate long-term capital investment planning [5][6].