增产碾压需求增长！分析师预警：2026年原油市场或“前低后高”

Core Viewpoint - The international crude oil market is facing multiple challenges, including robust global oil demand growth despite pessimistic sentiment, significant supply increases expected by 2025, and geopolitical uncertainties impacting prices and supply dynamics [1][2][3] Supply Dynamics - Non-OPEC oil production is expected to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, with Brazil, Argentina, and Guyana contributing an anticipated 1.4 million bpd from deepwater resources [2] - OPEC has announced a pause in production increases for the first quarter, with a projected annual production increase of 600,000 bpd if output remains unchanged throughout the year [2] - The supply surplus in 2025 is expected to be the highest since the pandemic, primarily driven by non-OPEC suppliers, particularly from deepwater projects and shale oil [1] Demand Outlook - Global oil demand is projected to grow by 900,000 bpd in 2026, with growth patterns influenced by the monetary policy cycle in the US and Europe, expected to be lower in the first half and higher in the second half of the year [3] - The first half of 2026 will face dual pressures from high supply levels and seasonal demand weakness, impacting price expectations [3] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical events, particularly the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, will significantly influence oil price volatility in 2025 and 2026, alongside US monetary policy and the Iran-Israel situation [3] - A successful resolution of the Russia-Ukraine talks could lead to downward pressure on oil prices due to reduced geopolitical risk premiums and potential increases in Russian supply [3] Market Structure - The structure of oil inventories is becoming increasingly differentiated, with rising waterborne inventories reaching their highest levels since 2020, while land-based inventories remain under pressure [1] - The domestic SC crude oil market will be influenced by potential logistical changes in Russian oil supply, with uncertainties surrounding the resumption of purchases by Western countries [3]