SpaceX很可能明年夏天上市！马斯克“投资知己”巴伦的最新对话，谈如何押注那些成功概率更高的“一把手”

Core Insights - Ron Baron, founder of Baron Capital, discussed the potential IPO of SpaceX and its valuation during a CNBC interview, highlighting his long-term investment strategy in companies led by Elon Musk [3][59] - Baron has invested approximately $4 billion in Tesla from 2014 to 2016, yielding about $8 billion in returns, and believes Tesla could generate several times that amount in the next decade [3][59][69] - Baron started investing in SpaceX in 2017, with a total investment of around $1.5 billion, now valued at nearly $10 billion, making it his largest single holding [4][60][76] Investment in SpaceX - Baron predicts a high likelihood of SpaceX going public in summer 2024, possibly on June 28, coinciding with Musk's birthday [5][61][75] - Current valuation of SpaceX is approximately $800 billion, with media speculation suggesting it could double by the time of the IPO [13][76] - Baron holds a $10 billion position in SpaceX and a $5 billion position in Tesla, with Tesla's stock price currently between $460 and $480 [24][77] Management Philosophy - Baron emphasizes that Musk's companies have evolved from being "one-man shows" to organizations with a culture that fosters exponential growth [6][73] - Musk's management style involves empowering talented individuals and allowing for failure in pursuit of better solutions, which contributes to a replicable organizational culture [20][73] - Baron believes understanding a company's culture is crucial for investment decisions, focusing on the values instilled in employees [18][73] Investment Strategy - Baron Capital aims for a diversified portfolio, recognizing the current market focus on AI and technology while also identifying undervalued small-cap companies [82][83] - The firm has launched a small-cap growth portfolio, emphasizing the attractiveness of these companies in a declining interest rate environment [83] - Baron highlights two companies, Guidewire and Idexx, as examples of firms that are beginning to realize their potential after investing in their future [32][84] Future Outlook - Baron anticipates that Baron Capital could generate $250 billion in profits over the next decade, significantly increasing from the $57 billion generated in the past 40 years [90][91] - The firm maintains a portion of its portfolio in high-growth, high-risk companies (30-40%), alongside stable, double-digit growth companies (50-55%), and those with suppressed short-term profits (10-15%) [114][116] - Baron expresses excitement about the numerous overlooked companies in the market, indicating a strong belief in their potential for growth [92][113]