今夜美国CPI或掀年末最大行情，美元和黄金的“生死对决”即将上演？

Core Insights - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November is highly anticipated as it will be the first inflation data released since the end of the recent government shutdown, with expectations of a 12-month inflation rate of 3.1% and a core CPI of 3.0% [1][2] - Analysts suggest that if the CPI shows a reading of 2.9%, it could create positive momentum for the stock market and influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook, potentially leading to a rate cut in 2026 [2][4] - Morgan Stanley warns that the CPI data is expected to confirm persistent inflation pressures, driven by rising housing costs and resilient commodity prices, with core inflation projected to remain around 3% [4][5] Group 1: CPI Report Expectations - The CPI report is set to be released on Thursday, including the unadjusted CPI year-on-year and the seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month [1] - The report is expected to show a 12-month inflation rate of 3.1%, with core CPI anticipated at 3.0% [1][2] - Analysts express that the psychological difference between inflation rates in the 2s and 3s will be crucial for market sentiment [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - If the CPI reading is 2.9%, it may pave the way for a "Santa Claus rally" in the stock market and influence the Fed's decision on interest rates [2][3] - Morgan Stanley indicates that the lack of monthly data could complicate the interpretation of the CPI report, but overall signals point to ongoing inflationary pressures [4][5] - The report's limitations may lead to a muted market response, but the overarching theme will likely be that inflation remains elevated [3][5] Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The report comes after a significant government shutdown, which has affected data collection and may lead to questions about the accuracy of the inflation figures [3] - Analysts highlight the uncertainty in the economic outlook, with conflicting indicators such as weak unemployment trends and strong profit growth expectations [3][4] - The potential rebound in housing inflation and resilient commodity prices suggest that inflation pressures are not confined to the service sector [5]