中金：算力强势打开SSD需求天花板 2026年NAND价格或将维持高位

Core Viewpoint - NAND contract prices have more than doubled since Q1 2025, driven by increased demand from AI model training and inference, which require higher write speeds, IOPS, capacity, and durability for enterprise SSDs [1][2] Demand Side - The convergence of cloud and edge AI is significantly boosting SSD demand, with expectations for substantial growth in storage capacity for mobile devices and PCs [2] - Global NAND Flash shipment volume is projected to approach 2000 EB by 2028, maintaining nearly 30% high growth over the next three years [2] Supply Side - Cautious capacity expansion by NAND manufacturers is expected to support prolonged price increases, with the current market dominated by a few key players [2] - The new joint factory by Kioxia and Western Digital has commenced production in Q3 2025, utilizing the advanced BiCS8 technology, which will contribute to revenue in the first half of 2026 [2] - Supply tightness is anticipated to last at least until the end of 2026, with NAND manufacturers likely to maintain price support through supply control [2] - Yangtze Memory Technologies' capacity expansion and its Xtacking architecture are expected to reshape the domestic NAND supply landscape [2] HDD Market - HDD remains a cost-effective choice for cloud computing vendors for cold storage, with advantages in unit storage cost and total cost of ownership (TCO) [3] - As NAND technology advances, the cost advantage of HDDs is expected to diminish, with current price differences ranging from 4 to 6 times [3] - Future HDD applications will focus on large-scale data lakes and cold data archiving, with a market growth rate of approximately 15% over the next three years [3]