美银2026年半导体展望：AI基建升级关键中点，芯片销售有望首破“万亿”美元大关

Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is projected to surpass $1 trillion in sales for the first time in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 29% [1] - AI semiconductor sales are expected to grow by over 50% year-on-year, driven by strong data center utilization, supply constraints, and competition among large language model builders, hyperscale cloud providers, and government clients [2][3] - Semiconductor equipment companies are anticipated to perform well in 2026, benefiting from capacity expansion and technological upgrades driven by AI infrastructure demand [3] Semiconductor Sales Projections - Total semiconductor revenue is expected to reach $1.01 trillion in 2026, up from $783 billion in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.1% from 2025 to 2028 [2] - Memory sales are projected to grow significantly, with a forecast of $347 billion in 2026, marking a 10.1% increase from 2025 [2] - Core semiconductors (excluding memory) are expected to reach $900 billion in 2028, with a CAGR of 16.4% from 2025 to 2028 [2] Semiconductor Equipment Market - Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) market size is projected to reach $150 billion by 2027, with analysts noting that current stock prices do not fully reflect this potential [3] - Advanced packaging sales have increased by 22% over the past year, significantly impacting the growth capabilities of major semiconductor equipment companies [4] Emerging Themes - Three emerging themes are expected to gain traction by 2026: Co-Packaged Optical Devices (CPO), robotics, and quantum computing [6] - CPO technology is seen as a novel networking solution superior to copper wiring, with major players like Broadcom, NVIDIA, and Marvell leading the market [6] - Quantum processors (QPU) are anticipated to disrupt the computing field similarly to how GPUs transformed the market, with NVIDIA's CUDA-Q platform providing complementary opportunities [6] Investment Opportunities - In the Electronic Design Automation (EDA) sector, companies like Cadence and Synopsys are highlighted as strong investment opportunities due to their stable revenue streams and lower beta coefficients [5] - The semiconductor industry remains optimistic about chip stocks, despite ongoing debates regarding AI investment pace and profitability [6]