Core Viewpoint - China Cinda (01359) is participating in a merger transaction between CICC (601995) and Cinda Securities (601059), which is expected to result in a significant change in its shareholding structure and a one-time tax-adjusted gain of approximately RMB 20 billion [1] Group 1: Merger and Shareholding Changes - As of the announcement date, China Cinda holds 2.6 billion shares of Cinda Securities A-shares, accounting for approximately 78.67% of its equity. Following the merger, it is expected to no longer hold any A-shares of Cinda Securities and will receive 1.3 billion shares of CICC, representing about 16.71% of CICC's equity on a fully diluted basis [1] - The proposed merger is anticipated to generate a one-time post-tax gain of around RMB 20 billion for China Cinda, primarily due to the change in accounting treatment from cost method to fair value for the merger [1] Group 2: Business Performance and Asset Management - In the first half of 2025, despite a decline in disposal scale due to economic conditions, the acquisition scale of operational non-performing assets has continued to grow, indicating potential for an upward cycle. The internal rate of return for acquisition business in H1 2025 is 8.7%, slightly down from 8.9% for the entire previous year [2] - Revenue from the acquisition and restructuring business in H1 2025 is reported at RMB 676 million, a decrease of 65.5% year-on-year. The net amount of acquisition and restructuring assets has decreased from RMB 28.485 billion at the end of 2024 to RMB 24.948 billion by mid-2025, indicating an orderly clearance process [2] Group 3: Asset Quality and Investment - The investment balance for non-performing asset management is reported at RMB 211.12 billion at the end of 2024 and RMB 208.29 billion by mid-2025. New investments in H1 2024 and H1 2025 were RMB 16.16 billion and RMB 30.41 billion, respectively, with revenues of RMB 4.09 billion and RMB 1.75 billion, showing a continuous increase in investment and solidification of asset value [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 3.7 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 21%. The corresponding BVPS is projected to be RMB 4.35, with a target price of HKD 1.89 per share, based on a 0.4x PB valuation for 2025 [4]