永赢基金王乾：2026年市场风格或再平衡，消费、地产产业链值得关注

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to reach a milestone in 2025, with a total market value exceeding 100 trillion yuan and the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4,000 points, marking a significant recovery and growth trajectory for 2026 [2] Market Performance and Drivers - The A-share market experienced a notable rally in the past year, driven by a policy shift and improved liquidity, with the rally beginning from the "924" policy change in 2024 [4][7] - The entry of state-owned funds at market lows significantly boosted investor confidence, leading to a noticeable inflow of incremental funds into the market [4][7] Market Structure and Future Outlook - In 2026, there is a cautious optimism regarding the overall market, with a potential shift in market style and a focus on sectors related to domestic demand, real estate, and cyclical industries benefiting from "anti-involution" policies [6][10] - The cyclical and value-related stocks, which lagged in 2025, may see a balanced rise in 2026, contingent on macroeconomic recovery and industry fundamentals [5][9] Key Investment Themes - The real estate sector is highlighted as a critical area for investment, as it is expected to stabilize and influence consumer behavior significantly [13] - Domestic consumption stocks, which underperformed in 2025, are also seen as having potential for recovery in 2026, despite current fundamental challenges [14] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to create opportunities in cyclical industries, with signs of improvement already emerging in Q4 of 2025 [15][18] Valuation and Investment Strategy - The valuation methods for cyclical and technology growth assets differ significantly, with traditional assets relying more on current value assessments, while tech assets are evaluated based on future potential [19][20] - Investors are advised to maintain a long-term perspective and understand the underlying logic of their investments, emphasizing the importance of value investing [26]