全球基金经理现金持有率创26年来新低

Group 1 - The average cash holding rate in global fund managers' portfolios decreased from 3.7% in November to 3.3% in December, marking the lowest level since the survey began in 1999 [2] - 42% of surveyed fund managers reported increasing their global stock holdings, the highest level since 2022, indicating a significant shift towards equities and commodities [2] - Global fund managers are currently experiencing the highest level of optimism since mid-2021, surpassing the peak during the "Trump trade" at the end of 2024 [3] Group 2 - Fund managers' expectations for global corporate profits are at their highest since 2021, leading to a more bullish outlook on the stock market [3] - Analysts suggest that the performance of global stock markets in 2026 will depend on sector distribution and style allocation, recommending a broader investment approach beyond just AI themes [4] - UBS forecasts a robust earnings growth of 7% to 14% for major markets next year, supporting further stock market gains despite high historical valuations [4] Group 3 - There are concerns that the overly optimistic sentiment in the market could lead to severe reactions to negative news, with low cash levels indicating a fragile market resilience [5] - The "AI bubble" is still viewed as the biggest market risk, although the percentage of fund managers identifying it as such has decreased from 45% to 38% [5] - A significant number of investors expect long-term bond yields to rise, with three-quarters of surveyed fund managers anticipating a steeper yield curve in the coming months [5]