市场迎来关键分水岭！停摆后首份CPI今夜出炉，通胀“二时代”能否打开降息大门？

Core Insights - The upcoming November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is highly anticipated on Wall Street, as it will be the first data release since the end of the recent government shutdown [1] - Economists predict a 12-month inflation rate of 3.1%, with a core CPI growth rate of 3.0% when excluding food and energy [1] - The report will not include month-over-month percentage changes due to missing October data, which was affected by the government shutdown [1] Economic Predictions - If the CPI reading is 2.9%, it could provide positive momentum for the stock market heading into 2026, potentially clearing the way for a "Santa Claus rally" [2] - A reading of 2.9% would also influence the interest rate outlook for the following year, with expectations for a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] Market Reactions - There is skepticism regarding the impact of a 0.1 percentage point fluctuation in the CPI, as some analysts believe it may not lead to significant market reactions [3] - The lack of month-over-month data and uncertainty about when the Bureau of Labor Statistics will begin collecting November data are seen as complicating factors [3] Economic Uncertainty - Analysts express concerns about conflicting economic indicators, such as weak unemployment trends and consumer spending, juxtaposed with expectations of 14% profit growth next year [4] - There is a call for more information before making definitive judgments about the long-term economic outlook [4]