【UNforex财经事件】美联储政策与通胀预期牵动黄金 短线承压

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing cautious fluctuations as investors take profits ahead of key data releases, with geopolitical tensions and central bank policies influencing market volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices are under pressure due to profit-taking after a period of gains, with the market adopting a cautious stance ahead of the November CPI release [1]. - Geopolitical events, such as Venezuela's naval escort of oil tankers in response to U.S. blockades, are attracting safe-haven investments, providing some support for gold prices [1]. - The expectation of low interest rates continues to be a significant factor supporting gold's mid-term structure, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [1]. Group 2: Currency and Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index saw a slight rebound, impacting gold's upward momentum, while the market is closely watching the upcoming U.S. CPI data, which is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 3.1% for overall CPI and 3.0% for core CPI [2]. - The European Central Bank has maintained its policy stance, while the Bank of England is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points, and the Bank of Japan's rate decision is expected soon [2]. - Market sentiment is heavily reliant on the CPI data, with expectations that it could influence the Federal Reserve's policy decisions in January, particularly regarding the likelihood of rate cuts [2]. Group 3: Trading Strategies and Market Sentiment - The trading logic for gold is shifting from trend-driven to event-driven, with short-term volatility reflecting position adjustments and expectation corrections rather than a change in trend [3]. - If the CPI data meets expectations, gold may continue to experience high-level fluctuations, supported by resilient rate expectations; however, stronger inflation could lead to a stronger dollar and increased gold price retraction [3]. - The gold market is currently in a phase of uncertainty, with price movements primarily reflecting macroeconomic expectations rather than a clear directional trend [3].