ASML Holding(US:ASML) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-18 09:26Core Viewpoint - ASML's CEO, Christoph Wouters, acknowledges a shift in demand from China, indicating a decline in orders due to the rise of local technology, marking a significant change in the company's outlook on the Chinese market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The demand from the Chinese market is transforming from "policy risk" to "order decline," with a forecasted significant drop in sales to China by 2026 [1]. - ASML's sales to China previously accounted for over one-third of its total revenue, but the competitive landscape is changing as local Chinese technology begins to erode this market share [1][5]. - Other Western companies, such as Applied Materials and Lam Research, are also expressing concerns about their reliance on the Chinese market, with significant portions of their revenues (37% for Applied Materials, 42% for Lam Research, and 44.4% for Tokyo Electron) coming from China [5]. Group 2: Technological Landscape - The narrative of Western technological superiority is being challenged as Chinese companies make significant strides in developing their own capabilities, moving away from a "copying" approach to a "system innovation" strategy [7][8]. - ASML's previous confidence in its technological edge is waning, as the gap in capabilities between Western and Chinese firms is narrowing, with the CEO indicating that the timeline for China to catch up is being compressed [8][11]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - ASML is attempting to maintain its market position by offering older technology models (like DUV equipment) to China, hoping to negotiate some leeway in the face of ongoing export restrictions [5][11]. - The company is caught in a dilemma between adhering to U.S. policies and maintaining trust with its largest customer, China, leading to a precarious balancing act [11].