清华五道口陆毅：构建内需主导经济发展模式，是“十五五”时期的战略抉择

Core Viewpoint - The conference highlighted the transition of China's economy from high-speed growth to high-quality development, emphasizing the need for a new development model that focuses on domestic circulation and consumption-driven growth [3]. Group 1: Economic Transition - China's economy has shifted from a phase of high-speed growth to one of high-quality development, undergoing a profound transformation in its development model [3]. - The period before 2002 was characterized as an exploratory phase, establishing the foundation for a market economy [3]. - From 2002 to 2010, the economy was driven by external demand and investment, leading to rapid urbanization and infrastructure development, but also creating supply-demand mismatches [3]. - Since 2010, the focus has shifted to consumption-led growth, with decreasing reliance on external demand and increasing importance of domestic circulation [3]. Group 2: Challenges and Opportunities - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China is still in a significant strategic opportunity phase, but faces new challenges such as external uncertainties and domestic imbalances [3]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for coordinated development and security, promoting a new development pattern that prioritizes domestic circulation while facilitating international circulation [3]. Group 3: Demand-Side Strategies - To address insufficient domestic demand, the strategy should focus on expanding internal demand and creating a favorable policy environment for consumption [4]. - Key measures include increasing labor compensation in initial distribution, expanding the middle-income group, and enhancing public investment in education, healthcare, and childcare [4]. - The plan also calls for increasing the share of quality consumer goods and services while removing unreasonable consumption restrictions [4]. Group 4: Supply-Side Strategies - The "14th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes the establishment of a modern industrial system, emphasizing an entity economy approach and the modernization of industrial chains [4]. - In the field of technological innovation, it is crucial to strengthen national strategic technological capabilities and focus on key core technology breakthroughs in areas like artificial intelligence and quantum information [4]. - The plan advocates for deep integration of industry, academia, and research to foster strategic emerging industries and accelerate the rise of new productive forces [4]. Group 5: Strategic Choices - The construction of an economy driven by domestic demand and consumption is a strategic choice for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [4]. - This requires deepening fiscal and tax reforms, optimizing tax structures, and balancing direct and indirect tax ratios [4]. - Investment should be coordinated between physical capital and human capital, enhancing infrastructure while increasing investments in education, health, and skills training to address social welfare gaps [4].