中国光伏出口大增，欧美政策“筑墙”

Core Insights - The overseas market is becoming a key focus for Chinese photovoltaic companies, with a shift towards emerging markets like South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia due to challenges in traditional developed markets [1] - The global investment in photovoltaic energy exceeds $500 billion annually, with nearly 600 GW of new installations expected in 2024, where China continues to lead in manufacturing and large-scale project deployment [1] - A new trend is emerging where Chinese photovoltaic companies are exploring a "technology licensing + localized production" model, potentially transforming them from "product manufacturers" to "technology exporters" [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The European photovoltaic market is expected to peak before 2030, driven by rapid policy changes and the EU's Net-Zero Industry Act, which aims for at least 40% of annual deployment needs to be met by local manufacturing [2] - The Indian government is promoting local manufacturing through the ALMM framework, which restricts participation in government-supported solar projects to approved manufacturers [3] - Emerging markets like Africa and South America are rapidly expanding, with Africa holding 40% of the world's solar energy resources, presenting significant opportunities for Chinese photovoltaic companies [4][5] Group 2: Export Opportunities - By 2025, China's photovoltaic exports to Africa are expected to surge, with projections of 2 GW of silicon wafers, 2.5 GW of batteries, and 15 GW of components, marking a significant growth highlight [5] - The European market, as the second-largest photovoltaic market after China, is projected to have a cumulative installation target of 600 GW by 2030, indicating clear growth potential [3] - The shift towards emerging markets is driven by the need to navigate high barriers in developed markets while capitalizing on the rapid growth and resource availability in regions like Africa and Southeast Asia [4][8] Group 3: Strategic Approaches - Chinese photovoltaic companies are adopting various strategies for overseas market entry, including capacity cooperation, localized manufacturing, direct exports, and transshipment trade [8] - The trend is shifting from "Made in China, sold globally" to "Globally manufactured, locally supplied," with capacity cooperation and localized manufacturing becoming the future focus [8]