市场情绪乐观 纯碱期货短期小幅反弹

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the soda ash main contract rose by 2.14% to 1193.00 CNY/ton, driven by optimistic market sentiment due to multiple ministries promoting "anti-involution" [1] - On the supply side, soda ash production has slightly increased, but long-term supply pressure remains significant due to new capacity coming online. Current prices are low, and with rising costs, it is expected that soda plants will have a strong willingness to undergo maintenance, potentially leading to a decline in production [1] - On the demand side, the production of photovoltaic glass remained stable month-on-month, while float glass production decreased, leading to expectations of increased cold repairs for float glass and pressure on soda ash demand [1] Group 2 - Overall, there is an expectation of weakening demand for heavy soda ash, while light soda ash demand remains relatively stable. Downstream replenishment has led to a continuous decline in soda plant inventories, and with upcoming maintenance, supply may decrease, alleviating short-term inventory pressure [1] - The current focus should be on cost support, as the price of thermal coal is weakening under supply assurance, which is expected to lower soda ash costs, suggesting a volatile outlook [1] - According to Everbright Futures, the spot market prices are mostly stable, with the price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe region at 1137 CNY/ton, down 6 CNY/ton day-on-day. The supply level of soda ash remains stable at a low level, with an industry operating rate of 82.05% [3]