申万宏源：财政的四大发力点

Core Viewpoint - The focus of future fiscal revenue and expenditure may be on maintaining deficits, standardizing tax collection, supplementing local financial resources, and resolving hidden debts [2][3][18] Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first eleven months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 200,516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while the expenditure was 248,538 billion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year [5] - In November, the broad fiscal expenditure showed a year-on-year decline of 1.7%, a significant narrowing of the decline by 17.5 percentage points compared to October, while the broad fiscal revenue fell by 5.2%, further declining by 4.6 percentage points from October [2][6] Revenue and Expenditure Dynamics - The divergence in fiscal revenue and expenditure is partly due to base disturbances and the ongoing drag from land finance [11][19] - The government fund revenue in November saw a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, although the decline was narrowed by 2.6 percentage points compared to October [24][29] - The general fiscal expenditure budget completion rate in November was 8%, lower than the five-year average of 8.4% [38] Support for Fiscal Expenditure - The 5,000 billion yuan local special bond limit and the implementation of financial tools have become important supports for broad fiscal expenditure in November [15][49] - The government fund expenditure turned positive in November, reaching a growth of 2.8%, significantly improving from a negative growth in October [38][49] Future Fiscal Strategy - The fiscal revenue strategy for 2026 may focus on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and addressing local fiscal difficulties while encouraging local governments to actively manage debts [18][19]