“多圈层”的地球系统预报要来了！将怎样改变你的生活？

Core Viewpoint - The "Earth System Forecast Development Strategy (2025-2035)" aims to establish an advanced, self-controlled Earth system forecasting system in China by 2035, focusing on eight key tasks to enhance forecasting capabilities across multiple spheres [1][3]. Group 1: Earth System Forecasting vs Traditional Forecasting - Earth system forecasting integrates various spheres (atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, and biosphere) into a cohesive model, contrasting with traditional forecasting that primarily focuses on atmospheric conditions [1][2]. - The new approach utilizes advanced technologies such as numerical models, artificial intelligence, and digital twins to better represent interactions and feedback mechanisms among different spheres, enhancing risk assessment and disaster response capabilities [2][3]. Group 2: Key Technological Breakthroughs Required - Development of a fully coupled Earth system model that integrates atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, biosphere, and socio-economic factors is essential, with a focus on achieving global kilometer-level and regional hundred-meter-level atmospheric modeling [2][3]. - Innovations in artificial intelligence forecasting models are necessary, particularly in the integration of weather and climate models and multi-sphere coupling [2]. - A deep integration of numerical forecasting and artificial intelligence is required to improve forecasting accuracy and computational efficiency [2][3]. Group 3: Digital Infrastructure for Earth System Forecasting - The Earth system digital infrastructure is crucial for high-quality forecasting development, comprising a multi-sphere data foundation, coupled models, and an open data-sharing platform [4][5]. - The data foundation will utilize various observational tools to collect comprehensive data across multiple spheres, supporting research and operational applications [4]. - The coupled models will leverage advanced computational capabilities to accurately simulate past, present, and future states of the Earth system [4][5]. Group 4: Strategic Value and Applications - The strategy aims to enhance forecasting capabilities significantly, improving the precision, richness, and reliability of weather forecasts, which will directly support disaster prevention and mitigation efforts [6][7]. - The expanded forecasting capabilities will empower economic and social development by extending meteorological services to various industries, including low-altitude aviation and transportation [6][7]. - Reliable Earth system forecasting will provide essential scientific support for climate change adaptation and ecological civilization initiatives, aiding in carbon emission assessments and reduction strategies [7].