BlackRock(US:BLK) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-18 12:56Group 1 - The core viewpoint of BlackRock's research is that the previously proposed idea of "the illusion of diversification" is becoming evident, and investors need to adopt dynamic strategies and develop alternative plans [1] - BlackRock indicates that the recent rise in long-term bond yields is partly due to increasing market concerns over loose fiscal policies and deteriorating fiscal outlooks, with Japan's 30-year government bond yield hitting a record high, up over 100 basis points this year [1] - The divergence in monetary policies between the US and other central banks is seen as a potential risk point for next year, as the US maintains a relatively dovish stance despite strong economic growth and inflation, while other economies with weaker data adopt a more hawkish approach [1] Group 2 - Despite the divisions among Federal Reserve decision-makers, BlackRock believes that the Fed's policy remains overly accommodative, and if investors demand a higher risk premium for holding long-term government bonds, yields may rise further, making short-term bonds more favorable in the current environment [2] - The delayed release of US employment data for October may show a contraction in job positions, reflecting the government's postponement of layoffs, which could lead to significant volatility in the data due to difficulties in data collection during the government shutdown [2] - In the current environment, diversification faces greater challenges, making it more suitable to adopt dynamic strategies, with unique return sources such as private markets and hedge funds being highlighted as potential avenues for excess returns [2]