The Coal Peak Is Now, IEA Study Shows - Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU), Range Global Coal Index ETF (ARCA:COAL)

Core Insights - Global coal demand is projected to reach a new record in 2025, with a subsequent decline expected through 2030 as renewable energy sources expand and coal-fired power generation decreases from 2026 onward [1][10] Demand Projections - Coal consumption is anticipated to rise by 0.5% in 2025, reaching approximately 8.85 billion tons, marking a new high despite the growth of clean energy [2] - Indian coal demand is expected to grow at an average rate of around 3% per year, adding over 200 million tons by 2030, driven by increasing electricity consumption and steel production [6] - Southeast Asia is projected to see coal use increase by more than 4% annually through 2030, as countries like Vietnam and the Philippines develop new coal-fired capacity [6] Regional Dynamics - China's coal demand remains flat compared to 2024, with expectations of a slight decline by the end of the decade due to aggressive renewable energy deployment and tightening energy policies [4] - U.S. coal consumption is forecasted to grow by 8% in 2025, breaking a 15-year trend of average annual declines, influenced by higher natural gas prices and federal policy support [7] Company Performance - Peabody Energy Corp. has seen its shares double over the past six months, benefiting from strong export and domestic demand for thermal and metallurgical coal [8] - Warrior Met Coal Inc. has experienced a nearly 56% year-to-date increase in its stock price, supported by resilient demand and robust margins from its Blue Creek project [9] Future Outlook - The IEA indicates that global coal demand is nearing its peak, with a forecasted decline of about 3% in consumption by 2030 compared to 2025, leading to reduced coal-fired generation below 2021 levels [10]