I primarily invest in turnarounds in natural resource industries, where I have a typical holding period of 2-4 years. Focusing on value offers good downside protection and can still provide great upside participation. The portfolio has, over the last 7 years, had a compounded annual growth rate of 38% .If you like this article and are interested in more frequent analysis of my holding companies real-time notifications on portfolio changes, together with macro and industry analysis. I would encourage you to ...

I primarily invest in turnarounds in natural resource industries, where I have a typical holding period of 2-4 years. Focusing on value offers good downside protection and can still provide great upside participation. The portfolio has, over the last 7 years, had a compounded annual growth rate of 38% .If you like this article and are interested in more frequent analysis of my holding companies real-time notifications on portfolio changes, together with macro and industry analysis. I would encourage you to ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, the company recorded net income attributable to common stockholders of $10.4 million or $0.09 per diluted share, with adjusted EBITDA of $118 million, a 19% increase from the prior quarter [25] - The company generated $69 million of operating cash flow from continuing operations during the quarter and $336 million for the full year, ending the year with $575 million in cash and total liquidity above $900 million [25][26] - For the full year, results met or exceeded original guidance for seven of eight volume and cost metrics, with seaborne thermal delivering 3.3 million tons, exceeding expectations [26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Seaborne metallurgical coal shipped 2.5 million tons, up 400,000 from the third quarter, with realized pricing improving to $113 per ton [27] - The U.S. Thermal platform contributed $63 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q4, with nearly $250 million of adjusted EBITDA for the full year [28] - PRB operations shipped 22.3 million tons in Q4 and 84.5 million tons for the full year, almost 5 million tons or 6% more than the prior year [29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Benchmark pricing for seaborne metallurgical coal rose to its highest mark in 18 months, increasing 15% from $190 per ton at the beginning of Q4 [16] - Coal fuel generation in the U.S. was up an estimated 13% year-over-year in 2025, running ahead of projections [20] - Asian countries continue to add coal generation capacity, with China adding 80 gigawatts of new capacity in 2025 [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The Centurion Mine is expected to ship an average of 4.7 million tons per year of premium hard coking coal, with a net present value for the project of $2.1 billion at $225 benchmark pricing [5][6] - The company aims to maximize long-term shareholder value by reweighting its portfolio toward higher-margin metallurgical coal [7] - Peabody is also evaluating renewable projects in formerly mined lands and developing a gas power station at the Centurion Mine [8] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in improving market fundamentals and highlighted a full agenda of priorities for the new year [3] - The company noted that coal remains a critical energy asset in the U.S., with substantial strength in both domestic thermal and seaborne metallurgical coal markets [15][13] - Management emphasized the importance of safety and environmental excellence, achieving a record safety year with an incident rate of 0.71 per 200,000 hours worked [3][4] Other Important Information - The company has conducted a robust critical mineral testing program, uncovering promising concentrations of heavy rare earths and other critical minerals [10] - Peabody is working with government agencies to strengthen domestic critical mineral supply chains and has been recommended for a $6.25 million grant for a pilot processing plant [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: What do you assume for the Australian dollar in the cost guide? - The company is looking at $0.70 for the Australian dollar and using a $225 benchmark pricing [39] Question: How much CapEx is potentially still left for Centurion development? - Approximately $100 million a year in development for the north for the next three years, plus $25 million a year in sustaining capital in the south [40] Question: How should we think about pricing in 2027 and beyond? - The company is not providing specific guidance for 2027 but expects favorable pricing conditions due to ongoing contracting [44] Question: What are the drivers for the increase in seaborne thermal costs? - The increase is primarily due to lower production volumes, particularly at Wilpinjong, and a slightly higher Australian dollar impacting costs [49] Question: How should we think about the cadence of shipments as the year progresses? - Seaborne thermal is expected to be less ratable in Q1, with a bounce back in Q2 and Q3, while Centurion will ramp up production throughout the year [54]

Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 05, 2026 11:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsJim Grech - President and CEOKala Finklang - Director of Investor RelationsMalcolm Roberts - Chief Commercial OfficerMark Spurbeck - CFOConference Call ParticipantsGeorge Eadie - Metals and Mining AnalystKatja Jancic - Metals and Mining AnalystNathan Martin - Senior Equity Research AnalystNick Giles - Senior Research AnalystOperatorGood day, and welcome to the Peabody Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call. All parti ...

Peabody Energy (NYSE:BTU) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 05, 2026 11:00 AM ET Speaker8Good day, and welcome to the Peabody Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press Star, then one on a touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press Star then two. ...

Financial Performance - Peabody reported fourth quarter net income of $10.4 million, or $0.09 per diluted share, down from $30.6 million, or $0.25 per diluted share, in the prior year quarter [2]. - Full-year 2025 revenue totaled $3,861.5 million, a decrease from $4,236.7 million in the prior year, with a full-year net income of $(52.9) million, or $(0.43) per diluted share [2]. - Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $454.9 million, significantly lower than $871.7 million in the prior year [2]. - Total revenue for Q4 2025 was $1,022.3 million, a decrease of 9.0% compared to $1,123.1 million in Q4 2024 [43]. - Seaborne Thermal revenue decreased to $205.6 million in Q4 2025 from $309.3 million in Q4 2024, representing a decline of 33.5% [43]. - The total U.S. Thermal revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025, was $1,860.3 million, down from $1,921.4 million in 2024, a decrease of 3.2% [43]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the year ended December 31, 2025, was $454.9 million, compared to $871.7 million in 2024, a decline of 47.9% [43]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $118.1 million, up from $99.5 million in Q3 2025, representing an increase of approximately 18.3% [40]. - Income from continuing operations for Q4 2025 was $11.6 million, a significant recovery from a loss of $66.6 million in Q3 2025 [40]. Production and Sales - Seaborne Thermal volumes reached 3.3 million tons in Q4 2025, with an average export price per ton of $81.80, a 7% increase from the prior quarter [8]. - Peabody's Powder River Basin shipped 22.3 million tons in Q4 2025, achieving an Adjusted EBITDA of $44.8 million for the quarter, a 27% increase over 2024 [11]. - Total tons sold in Q4 2025 was 31.9 million, down from 33.1 million in Q4 2024, a decrease of 3.6% [43]. - Seaborne metallurgical volumes are expected to be 2.4 million tons, achieving approximately 75% of the premium hard coking coal price index, with costs anticipated at $117-$122 per ton [24]. - PRB volume is expected to be approximately 21 million tons at an average price of $13.40 per ton, with costs of approximately $11.75-$12.25 per ton [27]. - For Q1 2026, Seaborne Thermal volumes are expected to be 2.8 million tons, with export tons priced at $101.05 per ton and segment costs anticipated to be $51-$56 per ton [23]. Cash Flow and Assets - Peabody's cash and cash equivalents stood at $575 million at the end of 2025, supported by $336 million of operating cash flow from continuing operations [13]. - Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at the end of Q4 2025 were $1,284.5 million, down from $1,382.6 million at the end of Q4 2024, a decrease of approximately 7.1% [37]. - Net cash provided by operating activities for Q4 2025 was $68.6 million, compared to $119.8 million in Q4 2024, reflecting a decrease of approximately 42.6% [37]. - The company reported a net cash used in financing activities of $11.4 million for Q4 2025, compared to $28.9 million in Q3 2025, indicating a decrease of about 60.6% [37]. - The company experienced a net change in cash of $(36.6) million in Q4 2025, contrasting with a positive change of $21.0 million in Q3 2025 [37]. Capital Expenditures and Expenses - Total capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to be $340 million, with SG&A expenses estimated at $115 million [30]. - Total segment costs for the year ended December 31, 2025, were $3,312.2 million, a decrease from $3,374.3 million in 2024, reflecting a reduction of about 1.8% [41]. - Total segment costs for Q4 2025 were $871.1 million, a decrease of 7.1% from $938.1 million in Q4 2024 [43]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is advancing projects related to rare earth elements and critical minerals, with significant testing ongoing at its Powder River Basin operations [19]. - Peabody's metallurgical coal realizations are expected to improve from approximately 70% of benchmark pricing in 2025 to 80% in 2026 [18]. - Peabody has been recommended for $6.25 million funding by the Wyoming Energy Authority for a pilot plant using PRB coal for REE/CM processing [21]. - The company expects to continue focusing on market expansion and strategic investments in rare earth elements and critical minerals [48]. Dividends and Shareholder Returns - The company declared a dividend of $0.075 per share, payable on March 10, 2026 [9]. - The company reported dividends paid of $9.0 million in Q4 2025, slightly down from $9.2 million in Q3 2025 [37]. - The company aims to preserve balance sheet strength and increase free cash flow to support shareholder returns [26]. Restructuring and Charges - The company incurred restructuring charges of $0.3 million in Q4 2025, down from $4.0 million in Q3 2025, showing a decline of approximately 92.5% [40].

Core Insights - Peabody reported a fourth quarter net income of $10.4 million, down from $30.6 million year-over-year, with Adjusted EBITDA of $118.1 million compared to $176.7 million in the previous year [1][2][29] - Full-year 2025 revenue was $3,861.5 million, a decrease from $4,236.7 million in 2024, with a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $(52.9) million, compared to a profit of $370.9 million in the prior year [2][29] - The company achieved record safety and environmental results, with a global Total Recordable Incident Frequency Rate (TRIFR) of 0.71, the lowest in its history [6][12] Financial Performance - Fourth quarter revenue was $1,022.3 million, with operating costs of $878.4 million, leading to an operating profit of $7.8 million [29] - Full-year Adjusted EBITDA was $454.9 million, significantly lower than $871.7 million in 2024 [2][29] - Operating cash flow from continuing operations was $336 million, with cash and cash equivalents totaling $575 million at year-end [12][29] Operational Highlights - Peabody's Centurion longwall mining operations commenced two months ahead of schedule, expected to produce 3.5 million tons in 2026 and ramping up to 4.7 million tons by 2028 [14][15] - The company reported strong performance in the Powder River Basin, shipping 22.3 million tons in the fourth quarter, a 4.9 million ton increase from 2024 [10][12] - Seaborne thermal coal volumes totaled 3.3 million tons in the fourth quarter, with an average export price per ton of $81.80, a 7% increase from the previous quarter [7][8] Market Conditions - U.S. market conditions are favorable for thermal coal, driven by higher natural gas prices and increased coal generation demand [3][6] - Peabody is advancing projects related to rare earth elements and critical minerals, with potential funding of $6.25 million for a pilot plant [17][22] Strategic Focus - The company aims to ramp up metallurgical coal production while maintaining its leadership in U.S. energy coal [19] - Peabody's 2026 guidance includes expected seaborne thermal volumes of 12.0 - 13.0 million tons and seaborne metallurgical volumes of 10.3 - 11.3 million tons [26][27]

We came across a bullish thesis on Peabody Energy Corporation on Valueinvestorsclub.com by mana12. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on BTU. Peabody Energy Corporation's share was trading at $35.26 as of January 30th. BTU’s trailing and forward P/E were 26.89 and 25.19 respectively according to Yahoo Finance. Peabody Energy Corporation engages in coal mining business. BTU presents a compelling bullish investment case driven by a combination of undervalued core operations, emerging crit ...

证券研究报告 | 行业研究简报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 煤炭开采 2025 年蒙煤电子竞拍梳理 本周全球能源价格回顾。截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，原油价格方面，布伦特原 油期货结算价为 70.69 美元/桶，较上周上涨 4.81 美元/桶（+7.3%）；WTI 原油期货结算价为 65.21 美元/桶，较上周上涨 4.14 美元/桶（+6.78%）。 天然气价格方面，东北亚 LNG 现货到岸价为 11.68 美元/百万英热，较上周 下降 0.13 美元/百万英热（-1.11%）；荷兰 TTF 天然气期货结算价 40.65 欧 元/兆瓦时，较上周上涨 1.28 欧元/兆瓦时（+3.24%）；美国 HH 天然气期 货结算价为 4.42 美元/百万英热，较上周下降 0.94 美元/百万英热（-17.5%）。 煤炭价格方面，欧洲 ARA 港口煤炭（6000K）到岸价 101.5 美元/吨，较上周 上涨 3 美元/吨（+3.05%）；纽卡斯尔港口煤炭（6000K）FOB 价 116.75 美 元/吨，较上周上涨 5.25 美元/吨（+4.71%）；IPE 南非理查兹湾煤炭期货 ...

Group 1 - Peabody will announce its fourth quarter and year-end financial results for December 31, 2025, during an investor conference call on February 5, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. Central Time [1] - The earnings release will be distributed via PR Newswire before the market opens on February 5 and will also be posted on the company's website [2] - Peabody is a leading coal producer, focusing on providing essential products for affordable and reliable energy and steel production, with a commitment to sustainability shaping its future strategy [3]