11月进出口额同比增长4.3% | 高频看宏观

Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) as of December 16, 2025, is 1.05, a decrease of 0.09 from December 9, 2025. The decline is attributed to drops in the "coastal coal transportation price index" and "import dry bulk freight index" by 0.23 and 0.05 respectively [1][3]. Consumption Data - In November, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898.0 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.3%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month. Retail sales of goods grew by 1.0%, and catering revenue increased by 3.2% [24][25]. - The proportion of online retail sales of physical goods in total retail sales decreased from 26.7% in the same period last year to 25.9% [24]. Foreign Trade - In November, the total import and export value was 549.025 billion USD, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.3% after a brief period of negative growth. Exports and imports grew by 5.9% and 1.9% respectively, with the trade surplus increasing by 20.68 percentage points year-on-year to 14.74% [24][25]. Industrial Production - The industrial added value for large-scale industries grew by 4.8% year-on-year in November, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. High-tech industries saw an increase of 8.4%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month [25]. - The mining sector's added value growth rose from 4.5% to 6.3%, while manufacturing and electricity, gas, and water supply sectors saw declines to 4.6% and 4.3% respectively [25]. Monetary Policy - As of December 16, 2025, the central bank's net fund injection through open market operations was 55.6 billion yuan, with a reverse repurchase amount of 695.1 billion yuan and an expiration of 639.5 billion yuan. The 7-day reverse repurchase rate stood at 1.4% [5][10]. Interest Rates - The overnight interbank rate decreased by 3 basis points to 1.37%, while the 7-day repurchase rate remained stable at 1.50%. The 1-year and 5-year swap rates were consistent with previous levels at 1.54% and 1.63% respectively [10][15]. Real Estate Market - In the week ending December 16, 2025, new and second-hand housing transaction areas in first-tier cities increased by 22.62% and 9.18% respectively. In second-tier cities, the increases were 8.98% and 6.56%, while third-tier cities saw increases of 38.5% and 14.78% [35][41]. Shipping and Logistics - The China Coastal Bulk Freight Index (CCBFI) decreased by 66.79 points to 1,058.23 points, while the Baltic Dry Index fell by 353 points to 2,204 points. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) rose by 3.18 to 1,118.07 [33][42].