交易所出手！铂金年内狂飙117%跑赢黄金，机构：明年或回调

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in platinum and palladium prices is driven by tight supply conditions and strong market sentiment, with significant price increases observed in December 2023 [3][6][10]. Group 1: Price Movements - On December 18, 2023, platinum reached a high of $1995.6 per ounce, while palladium peaked at $1787 per ounce, marking year-to-date increases of 114% for platinum and approximately 85% for palladium [3]. - As of 20:50 on the same day, platinum and palladium prices retreated to around $1920 and $1680 per ounce, respectively, while platinum jewelry prices exceeded 800 yuan per gram [4]. - Domestic palladium futures saw multiple contracts hit the daily limit, with the main contract closing at 476.6 yuan per gram, and platinum also maintaining high levels [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current price increase is attributed to a combination of tight physical supply, high leasing rates for platinum, and strong buying sentiment in the futures market [6][10]. - The global platinum market is expected to face a supply shortage for the third consecutive year by 2025, with a projected deficit of 850,000 ounces [10]. - Factors contributing to the tight supply include production declines in South Africa and increased demand from the automotive sector, particularly in China and Europe [9][10]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Different institutions have varying outlooks for platinum and palladium prices in 2026. Some, like TD Securities, predict continued strong price increases due to robust automotive demand, while others, such as Heraeus, express caution regarding potential price corrections [11][12]. - Citibank highlights that platinum and palladium have underperformed compared to gold, suggesting potential for price recovery as industrial demand shifts [11]. - Concerns about industrial demand and recession risks may exert downward pressure on platinum prices, despite current market tightness [12].