Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-12-18 13:57Core Insights - Eli Lilly's oral weight loss drug orforglipron has shown significant progress in late-stage clinical trials, demonstrating its ability to help patients maintain weight loss after switching from injectable treatments [1][3] - The FDA has received a submission for orforglipron's approval, which could provide a non-injection long-term weight management solution for obesity patients [1] - The oral weight loss drug market is expected to be dominated by Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, with Eli Lilly potentially capturing a significant share of the maintenance patient market [2] Clinical Trial Results - The ATTAIN-MAINTAIN phase 3 clinical trial included over 300 obesity patients who previously received 72 weeks of treatment with Wegovy or Zepbound injections, followed by a 52-week observation period after switching to orforglipron or a placebo [3] - The trial met its primary endpoint, showing that orforglipron significantly outperformed the placebo in maintaining weight after the injection treatment plateau, with patients switching from Wegovy regaining an average of only 2 pounds, while those switching from Zepbound regained about 11 pounds [3] Competitive Landscape - Analysts believe the trial results provide Eli Lilly with a unique opportunity to capture revenue from patients who have been on long-term treatment with Novo Nordisk's semaglutide products [4] - Unlike Novo Nordisk's oral medications, orforglipron is not a peptide drug, making it easier for the body to absorb and potentially offering better patient compliance and long-term convenience [4] Safety and Market Share Projections - Safety data for orforglipron aligns with previous studies, with gastrointestinal symptoms being the most common side effects, typically mild to moderate in severity [5] - Discontinuation rates due to side effects were low, with 4.8% for the Wegovy switch group and 7.2% for the Zepbound switch group, compared to 7.6% and 6.3% for the placebo groups, respectively [5] - Goldman Sachs analysts project that the oral weight loss drug market will reach approximately $22 billion by 2030, with orforglipron expected to capture about 60% of this market share [6]