欧央行连续第四次按兵不动，重申通胀将在中期回归2%目标，巩固2026年加息预期

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, with the deposit rate remaining at 2%, aligning with analysts' expectations [1] Economic Resilience and Inflation Target - The macroeconomic backdrop of the meeting indicates stronger resilience in the Eurozone economy than previously anticipated, with the third quarter performance exceeding market expectations [5] - The ECB's statement reflects a tolerance for short-term inflation fluctuations, projecting that inflation will stabilize at the 2% target in the medium term, despite forecasts suggesting it may be slightly below this target over the next two years [5] Market Expectations Shift and Policy Divergence - The ECB's decision to hold rates steady distinguishes it from the global trend of monetary easing, as both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve have recently cut rates [6] - Investors are reassessing their expectations, moving away from a singular focus on easing and beginning to price in the possibility of the ECB raising rates as early as 2026 [6] Decision-Maker Stance Towards Hawkishness - Statements from ECB officials reinforce expectations of a pause in rate cuts and potential future rate hikes, with Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel indicating that she is not overly concerned as long as inflation deviates only slightly from the target [7] - The previously dovish stance of Lithuanian central bank governor Gediminas Simkus has shifted, acknowledging the unexpectedly strong economic performance and suggesting no further easing is necessary [7] Interest Rate Details - ECB deposit facility rate: 2%, expected: 2%, previous: 2% [8] - ECB marginal lending rate: 2.4%, expected: 2.4%, previous: 2.4% [8] - ECB main refinancing rate: 2.15%, expected: 2.15%, previous: 2.15% [8]