资管一线｜外资持续看多“中国资产” 科技、消费和出海成为新坐标

Group 1: Foreign Investment Outlook - The year 2025 is seen as a pivotal moment for foreign investors reassessing Chinese assets, with a consensus on focusing on technology, consumer sectors, and high-value export companies for 2026 [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen from 3200 points at the beginning of 2025 to around 3900 points, indicating a strong market performance [2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the MSCI China Index's earnings per share (EPS) growth will increase to approximately 12% in 2026, up from an average of 8% from 2020 to 2024, driven by structural improvements in corporate profitability [2] Group 2: Technology Sector Insights - The AI sector is expected to be a significant growth area, with capital expenditures in AI infrastructure projected to benefit Chinese suppliers [4][5] - Analysts believe that the Chinese technology sector will see a capital expenditure growth rate of around 20% over the next 12 months, which will positively impact profitability [5] - China is positioned as a strong competitor in the global AI race, leveraging its advantages in data scale, energy efficiency, and infrastructure [5] Group 3: Consumer Sector Opportunities - The consumer market in China is undergoing structural changes, with a shift from goods to services and from survival to experience-driven consumption [6][7] - UBS notes that consumer-related sectors are currently undervalued, particularly in food and beverage and home appliances, suggesting potential investment opportunities [6] - The recovery of consumer spending is expected to be supported by improving corporate profits and rising household incomes, with a focus on new products and technologies [6][7] Group 4: International Expansion of Chinese Companies - Chinese companies are increasingly focusing on international markets, transitioning from passive to proactive strategies in global expansion [8][9] - Analysts highlight that the shift towards high-value exports will be a core investment theme for A-shares in 2026, with expectations of increased overseas revenue contributing to higher profit margins [8][9] - The overseas revenue share of MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index components is projected to rise significantly, particularly in sectors like new energy, consumer electronics, and AI-related hardware [9]