Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI): A Bear Case Theory

Core Thesis - Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) is facing significant near-term downside due to forced selling pressure from multiple ETF rebalances occurring on December 19th, which includes a $30 million liquidation of RGTI shares from the Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM) [2][4] Company Fundamentals - RGTI has a market capitalization of $10 billion but generated less than $2 million in revenue last quarter while burning through $43.6 million in cash over nine months, primarily funded through retail share sales [4] - The company has not seen any insider purchases since June 2022, with recent insider sales occurring as recently as December 10th, and the CEO holding no shares, indicating a lack of confidence in the company's future [3][4] Market Dynamics - The convergence of ETF-driven selling, ongoing insider exits, and weak operational performance creates a high-risk environment for existing shareholders, suggesting a potential sharp market correction for RGTI [4][5] - The stock has experienced a run-up over the quarter despite negative earnings and an unreasonably high price relative to its fundamentals, making it particularly vulnerable to the upcoming selling pressure [3][4]