Apple Stock To Drop 40% In 2026?

Core Viewpoint - Apple stock has seen significant price appreciation over the last three years, doubling from approximately $130 to nearly $275, despite relatively flat revenues during the same period [2][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue growth for Apple has been sluggish, with an annual increase of only about 2.4% over the last three fiscal years [3]. - Operating margins have improved from 30.3% in 2022 to 31.9% currently, primarily due to product mix rather than increased demand [4]. - Profitability has increased as services have expanded faster than hardware sales, indicating that Apple is benefiting more from pricing strategies than from volume growth [4]. Product and Innovation Challenges - Apple is perceived to be lagging in the AI sector, with significant delays in upgrades to Siri and a general perception that its AI capabilities are behind competitors like Google [5]. - The Vision Pro, Apple's first major new product in nearly a decade, is expected to have disappointing first-year sales, projected at only 400,000 to 500,000 units [5]. Capital Allocation - Over the past three years, Apple has spent approximately $280 billion on share buybacks, significantly reducing the number of shares outstanding and boosting earnings per share (EPS) [6]. - In the most recent fiscal year, Apple allocated $91 billion for buybacks, compared to $34 billion for research and development (R&D) and only $13 billion for capital expenditures [6]. Valuation Concerns - Apple is currently trading at about 9.9x price-to-sales, close to all-time highs and significantly above historical levels, even during the Steve Jobs era [8]. - The high valuation suggests expectations of strong, sustainable growth, which is inconsistent with the company's flat revenues, sluggish AI execution, and underperforming new product efforts [9]. Investment Considerations - The disconnect between Apple's current valuation and its financial and operational performance raises concerns for potential investors [9].