Is Mosaic Stock Underperforming the S&P 500?

Core Viewpoint - The Mosaic Company, a significant player in the agriculture inputs industry, has experienced a notable decline in stock performance despite reporting strong quarterly results, leading to concerns about investor confidence and future sales guidance [1][5][6]. Company Overview - The Mosaic Company is based in Tampa, Florida, and specializes in producing and marketing concentrated phosphate and potash crop nutrients both in North America and internationally [1]. - With a market capitalization of $7.9 billion, Mosaic is categorized as a mid-cap stock, reflecting its substantial size and influence in the agriculture inputs sector [2]. Stock Performance - Mosaic's stock has decreased by 38.6% from its 52-week high of $38.23 reached on July 8, and has fallen 30.6% over the past three months, underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which has seen a 2.9% increase during the same period [3]. - Year-to-date, Mosaic's stock has declined by 4.6%, and over the past 52 weeks, it has dropped 9.2%, significantly lagging behind the S&P 500's gains of 15.6% in 2025 and 12% over the past year [4]. Quarterly Results - In its Q3 results released on November 4, Mosaic reported a 22.8% year-over-year increase in net sales to $3.5 billion, exceeding market expectations by 40 basis points [5]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose from $0.34 in the same quarter last year to $1.04, surpassing consensus estimates by 6.1% [5]. Guidance and Analyst Ratings - Despite the positive quarterly results, Mosaic reduced its full-year sales volumes guidance, which may have affected investor confidence [6]. - Compared to its peer, CF Industries Holdings, Inc., which has seen a 9.1% decline year-to-date and a 10.5% drop over the past year, Mosaic has outperformed [6]. - Among 17 analysts covering Mosaic stock, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," with a mean price target of $34, indicating a potential upside of 44.9% from current price levels [6].