2026年日本房地产市场展望报告（英文版）-世邦魏理仕CBRE

Macro Environment - The Japanese economy is expected to see moderate growth, with positive GDP growth projected for five consecutive quarters from Q2 2024 to Q2 2025, supported by private consumption and corporate capital investment [7][14] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise interest rates 2-3 times between late 2025 and 2026, while maintaining an accommodative lending environment for real estate [8][22] Investment Market - Full-year investment volume for 2025 is projected to exceed JPY 6 trillion, setting a new record, with robust activity expected to continue into 2026 [8][28] - Overseas investors have shown significant interest, with acquisition volume reaching JPY 1.87 trillion in the first three quarters of 2025, a 2.4x increase from the same period in 2024 [8][39] - Domestic investors, including J-REITs and private funds, are actively seeking acquisitions, with total acquisition volume for non-J-REITs up 43% year-on-year to JPY 2.36 trillion [8][40] Office Market - Office rents across Japan are rising, with Tokyo Grade A office rents increasing over 10% year-on-year in 2025, and further double-digit growth expected in 2026 [9][65] - Vacancy rates in major cities remain low, with Tokyo's Grade A vacancy rate at 1.0% and overall vacancy rates expected to stay below 2% due to limited new supply [9][90] - Demand for office space is driven by corporate performance and a structural labor shortage, leading to a strong appetite for upgrading office environments [9][85] Logistics Market - The logistics real estate market shows regional differentiation, with vacancy rates in the Greater Tokyo area projected to decline to around 7% by 2027, while the Greater Osaka area maintains a balanced supply-demand situation [10][67] - Demand for logistics space is expanding beyond Tokyo, particularly for food and daily necessities, with rental rates expected to recover in major metropolitan areas starting in 2026 [10][67] Retail Market - The retail real estate market is experiencing extremely tight supply-demand conditions, with several core shopping districts reporting vacancy rates of 0% [11][3] - Retail sales remain stable, with increased demand for clothing, dining, and outdoor sports goods, leading to continued rental growth projected for 2026 [11][3] - The Ginza shopping district is expected to see cumulative rent increases of 4.7% by the end of 2027, with secondary districts likely to follow suit [11][3]