美CPI降温别高兴太早：经济学家怀疑政府关门导致数据失真，有人指明显出错

Core Insights - The November core inflation unexpectedly dropped to its lowest level in over four years, raising skepticism among economists due to data collection issues caused by a prolonged government shutdown [1][3] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding food and energy rose by 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest growth rate since March 2021, while the overall CPI increased by 2.7%, both below economists' expectations [1][3] Data Collection Issues - The core CPI only increased by 0.2% over the two months leading to November, with significant data collection disruptions due to a 43-day government shutdown [3][4] - Economists criticized the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for assuming zero growth in rental prices for October, which artificially lowered the November inflation figures [3][4][6] - The BLS's data collection was delayed until late November, coinciding with the "Black Friday" discount period, potentially distorting the data further [4][6] Market Reactions - Despite skepticism regarding the data's reliability, U.S. stock markets rebounded following the CPI release, with expectations of a slight increase in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January [3][7] - Some market analysts view the unexpected decline in inflation as a strong basis for the Federal Reserve to consider a rate cut, while others remain cautious about the data's validity [7][10] Sector-Specific Insights - Housing costs emerged as a significant concern, with a year-on-year increase of only 3%, the smallest in over four years, raising questions about the accuracy of the reported inflation figures [9][10] - The report indicated that energy prices rose by 4.2%, with electricity prices increasing by 6.9%, while used car prices saw a 3.6% rise, reflecting ongoing affordability concerns among consumers [10][11]