中邮证券：黄金多次创造历史新高 贵金属为有色金属板块亮眼品种

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyou Securities indicates that gold is expected to be the standout performer in 2025, driven by a shift from U.S. Treasury bonds. Gold prices are currently stable above $4,000 per ounce, while silver has seen a higher percentage increase compared to gold due to liquidity factors [1]. Group 1: 2025 Market Outlook for Precious Metals - The precious metals market in 2025 is anticipated to unfold in two phases: the first phase involves a diversified asset allocation driven by tariff expectations from the Trump administration, leading to a correlation between U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices, with London gold surpassing $3,500 per ounce in April 2025 [2]. - In the second phase, starting in mid-August, a rate cut cycle is expected as the market begins to price in the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, resulting in significant inflows into Western gold ETFs. During this phase, gold is projected to break through $4,300 per ounce, setting a new historical high, while silver is expected to exceed $55 per ounce, outperforming gold and leading to a decrease in the gold-silver ratio [2]. Group 2: 2026 Market Outlook for Gold - The outlook for gold in 2026 suggests continued upward momentum, potentially exceeding expectations due to several factors: the perceived weakening of U.S. dollar credibility following the U.S. National Security Strategy report, which acknowledges the limitations of U.S. power in a multipolar world, thereby reinforcing gold's role as an alternative to U.S. Treasury bonds [3]. - The likelihood of secondary inflation is increasing, with expectations of further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which could drive up gold prices as inflation metrics rise alongside persistently high long-term Treasury yields [3]. - Historical trends indicate that following rate cuts, there is typically an influx into ETFs in the U.S. and Europe, which, combined with dovish expectations and the Fed's balance sheet expansion, is likely to encourage continued investment in gold ETFs [3]. Group 3: 2026 Market Outlook for Silver - Silver is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2026, primarily due to its supply-demand imbalance, which has persisted for five consecutive years, making it potentially stronger than copper despite a large existing market [4]. - The anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are expected to drive silver prices higher, as the metal has shown greater elasticity in response to market conditions, particularly following its outperformance against gold after April 2025 [4]. - Continuous supply shortages are likely to create tension in the physical market, with some countries considering silver as a reserve asset, thereby enhancing its monetary attributes and increasing its investment value [4].