国金证券姚遥：锂电行业供需格局或已现反转，产业链景气度多元开花

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is expected to experience a new round of expansion driven by solid-state technology breakthroughs and increased capital expenditure from 2023 to 2025, leading to a potential reversal in supply-demand dynamics and price increases in certain segments [1][2]. Industry Cycle - The lithium battery midstream is entering a "recovery-prosperity" phase from 2024 to 2025, with revenue and inventory on the rise since the first quarter of 2024, indicating a recovery phase in the inventory cycle [1]. - The current inventory cycle is nested within a mid-cycle capacity expansion, with a second round of weak replenishment expected to last 1-2 years, potentially ending by late 2025 to 2026 [1]. Technological Developments - New technologies and scenarios are creating a second growth peak for lithium batteries, with solid-state batteries being a long-term strategic direction that will reshape the process and material systems [2]. - The establishment of pilot lines for solid-state batteries is expected to begin in 2025, transitioning towards mass production, with a clearer supply chain emerging [2]. - Composite copper foil is anticipated to achieve true industrialization, with production rhythms and penetration rates likely to exceed market expectations [2]. Market Dynamics - The industry is expected to favor differentiated leading players in niche segments, as they possess significant product and cost competitive advantages [2]. - Leading companies are likely to achieve full capacity utilization first, ensuring the most reliable performance and strongest elasticity [2]. - As the lithium battery supply-demand dynamics reach a new turning point in the second half of 2025, attention should be paid to high-demand segments such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, energy storage batteries, lithium iron phosphate, and dry-process separators [2].