长端利率继续下行，机构：货币宽松或仍是主基调，短端品种确定性更高

Group 1 - Long-term interest rates continue to decline, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 1.7 basis points to 1.84%, the 30-year bond down by 4.6 basis points to 2.23%, and the 10-year policy bank bond down by 3.0 basis points to 1.90% [1] - Current market liquidity is overall loose, with the central bank's operations aimed at smoothing fluctuations. Seasonal liquidity pressure may rise towards year-end, but the People's Bank of China maintains a clear stance on loose monetary policy, with high certainty for future reverse repos, MLF, and bond purchases to support liquidity [1] - Fiscal policy discussions indicate a commitment to maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels, alleviating market concerns regarding government bond supply [1] Group 2 - The bond market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the short term due to strong profit-taking sentiment among institutions, with short-term bonds showing higher certainty [1] - As of December 17, the government bond and policy financial bond ETF (511580) has seen a net inflow of over 2.9 billion yuan for 10 consecutive days, with the latest scale surpassing 4 billion yuan. This ETF tracks the China Government Bond and Policy Financial Bond 0-3 Year Index, primarily investing in government bonds and policy financial bonds with low credit risk, large scale, and good liquidity [1]