中国可回收火箭“压轴”12月 商业航天蓄力突围

Core Insights - 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for China's commercial space industry, transitioning from technological accumulation to explosive growth, with multiple private aerospace companies completing rocket launch tests and accelerating satellite internet deployment [1] - Policy support is intensifying, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing the construction of a "space power" and the establishment of a dedicated Commercial Space Administration by the National Space Administration [1] - Despite a promising outlook, supply chain weaknesses remain evident, particularly in upstream infrastructure, which is seen as a critical bottleneck for the industry [1] Group 1: Developments in Reusable Rockets - December 2023 marked significant advancements in China's reusable rocket technology, highlighted by the launch of the Zhuque-3 rocket, which, despite a recovery failure, provided valuable experience for future missions [3] - The Zhuque-3 rocket is designed for low-cost, high-capacity, and reusability, utilizing a self-developed liquid oxygen-methane engine [3][7] - Following Zhuque-3, the Long March 12甲 rocket is set for its maiden flight, indicating a rapid progression in China's commercial space capabilities [3][8] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - Currently, only the United States has mastered reusable rocket technology, with SpaceX leading the way, having completed over 500 launches with its Falcon 9 rocket [4] - China's commercial launch capacity remains limited, with a small percentage of payloads being launched, highlighting a significant gap in meeting future satellite constellation deployment needs [5] - The goal of reusable technology is to significantly reduce launch costs, with the Zhuque-3 aiming to lower costs to below 20,000 RMB per kilogram, enhancing China's competitive edge in the global market [10] Group 3: Technical Challenges and Innovations - The Zhuque-3 rocket's development involved a unique approach based on first principles, leading to innovative design choices such as a stainless steel body and a specific landing strategy [7] - The Long March 12甲 rocket emphasizes a stable supply chain by utilizing domestically produced liquid oxygen and kerosene, reflecting a dual risk approach in China's aerospace strategy [8] - The economic logic of rocket recovery is underscored by the potential for significant cost reductions through repeated use, with projections indicating a 45% decrease in operational costs after five uses [9] Group 4: Future Outlook - The next few years are expected to see intensified competition in the rocket market, focusing on cost control, reliability, and service responsiveness [10] - Industry consensus suggests that with the emergence of medium to large liquid rockets and reusable technology, launch prices may approach or even undercut those of SpaceX within five years [10] - The ongoing efforts in China's commercial space sector are gradually addressing previously deemed insurmountable challenges, indicating a promising trajectory for the industry [11]