近五年来最强年度回报在望 债市牛市能否延续至2026？

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to achieve its best performance in nearly five years by the end of 2025, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, easing inflation pressures, and a slowing labor market. However, market participants caution that returns may not be as strong in 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Market Performance - As of Thursday, the cumulative return of the U.S. Aggregate Bond Index for 2025 has exceeded 7%, compared to only 1.25% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2023 [1]. - The bond market's rebound follows a historic low in 2022, when the Federal Reserve implemented its fastest rate hike cycle in nearly 40 years, causing the index to drop over 13%, marking its worst performance on record [1][2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Bond Prices - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased from approximately 4.58% in January to 4.12% currently, influenced by expectations of further rate cuts and signs of economic slowdown [2]. - The strong performance of bonds in 2025 is attributed to higher coupon income and capital gains from rising prices, as yields were initially at high levels [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - Despite the anticipated weaker performance in 2026, bonds are still considered valuable for portfolio diversification and long-term stability, maintaining the classic "60/40" investment strategy [3]. - Even if bond prices do not rise as significantly in 2026, they are expected to provide positive returns, although the intensity may not match that of 2025 [3][4]. - Concerns exist that additional fiscal stimulus could reignite inflation pressures, potentially leading to a rise in 30-year Treasury yields and increasing the risk of long-term bond sell-offs [4].