碳酸锂期货价格持续上涨 但基本面不确定因素仍较多

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures prices have risen over 44% since October, driven by market expectations of increased demand and supply uncertainties [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine next week and the launch of Jiangxi Qiangyu New Materials project have raised concerns about supply growth [1] - Analysts note that the resumption of the Jiangxiawo lithium mine is a key variable affecting supply-demand balance, with expectations of increased supply in January [1][2] - Current lithium carbonate inventory depletion has slowed, with a weekly depletion of 1,044 tons reported, down from previous levels of around 2,000 tons [2][3] Market Sentiment and Price Trends - Despite the recent price increases, there are concerns about whether the demand growth expected for 2026 will materialize, leading to potential shifts in market dynamics [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the current price levels may already reflect optimistic market expectations for 2026, indicating a potential premium [2] - The market is experiencing a reduction in bullish factors and an increase in bearish factors, raising the risk of price corrections if prices rise too quickly [2][3] Future Outlook - The uncertainty in the lithium carbonate market remains significant, with potential impacts from seasonal demand fluctuations and the resumption of lithium mining operations [3] - Downstream manufacturers' production data for the first quarter of next year will be a key focus for the market, especially in light of declining electric vehicle sales [3]