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Core Viewpoint - The urea market is experiencing price stabilization due to a combination of supply-side adjustments and steady agricultural demand, despite previous pressures from high domestic supply and fluctuating export volumes [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of December 18, urea futures main contract prices increased by 1.67% to 1708 CNY/ton, with low-end product ex-factory prices rising by 10-20 CNY/ton to 1610-1670 CNY/ton [1]. - The CFR price for small granular urea in China was reported at 387.5 USD/ton, a decrease of 4 USD/ton from the previous week [3]. - Urea prices are expected to remain within the range of 1500-2000 CNY/ton for most of 2025, with a central price around 1750 CNY/ton [4]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - National urea production from January to November 2025 reached 65.09 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with November production hitting 6.01 million tons [2]. - The operating rate for coal-based urea production was 89.6%, up by 2.9 percentage points month-on-month, while the natural gas-based urea operating rate was 55.2%, down by 9.9 percentage points [2]. - New production capacities are expected to increase total urea capacity by 5.6% by 2025, with significant contributions from several companies in Gansu [2]. Group 3: Inventory Levels - Urea production companies have seen a slight reduction in inventory over six consecutive weeks, with total inventory dropping to 1.1797 million tons, a decrease of 54,500 tons from the previous period [3]. - Port inventories have shown a slight increase, indicating a mixed inventory trend across different storage locations [3]. Group 4: Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand for urea is gradually increasing, supported by stable supply and price stabilization efforts [4]. - The operating rate for compound fertilizers was reported at 40.6%, reflecting a slight month-on-month increase but a year-on-year decrease of 2.9 percentage points [4]. - The winter season's natural gas-based urea production facility maintenance is expected to lead to a decline in operating rates, with companies focusing on essential purchases [4].