贵金属市场短期存在利空 长期“牛市”逻辑未改

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Dynamics - The global monetary and fiscal easing expectations are providing strong support for precious metal prices, although some precious metals face potential short-term negative disturbances [1] - The Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in both 2026 and 2027, and has recently conducted technical balance sheet expansion to maintain liquidity [1] - Uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path may affect market expectations for liquidity expansion, potentially disturbing precious metal prices [1] Group 2: Long-term Factors Supporting Precious Metals - Global debt and fiscal deficit expansion, along with ongoing central bank gold purchases, are long-term bullish factors for the precious metals market [2] - Gold and silver prices have risen significantly over the past three years, leading to potential technical selling pressure due to their overweight in the Bloomberg Commodity Index [2] - Despite short-term negative factors, the long-term core trading logic for gold and silver remains unchanged, driven by global "reflation" trades, monetary policy uncertainty, and geopolitical risks [2] Group 3: Platinum and Palladium Market Insights - The global platinum market is expected to face a tight supply-demand situation by 2026, with slow growth in production due to high mining costs and unstable power supply [3] - Platinum demand is supported by stricter automotive emissions standards, with automotive catalysts accounting for 42.5% of global platinum demand [3] - The palladium market is experiencing pressure from the increasing market share of electric vehicles, leading to a less optimistic long-term demand outlook for palladium [3]