供需格局有望改善 PTA价格重心预计上移

Group 1: PTA Market Overview - The main contract price of PTA has been fluctuating between 4600 to 4750 yuan/ton, with no significant short-term market contradictions [1] - The long-term outlook for the PTA industry is positive, with expectations for the future contract price to gradually rise [1] Group 2: Oil Price Influences - Tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela have led to a geopolitical premium in oil prices, with Brent crude oil prices rebounding above 60 USD/barrel [2] - Despite a generally pessimistic view on oil supply and demand, current oil prices have already factored in many negative elements, and geopolitical factors are expected to provide strong support [2] Group 3: PTA Industry Fundamentals - Since 2019, the PTA industry has entered a new expansion cycle characterized by large-scale and integrated facilities, with effective capacity expected to double from 46.69 million tons in 2019 to over 94.72 million tons by 2025 [3] - No new PTA capacity is expected in 2026, significantly reducing supply pressure, while downstream polyester production is projected to increase by about 5% [3] - As of December 17, PTA processing fees were at 164 yuan/ton, a historical low, with upstream PX supply remaining tight, squeezing PTA profits [3] Group 4: Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the next 1-3 months, PTA is expected to enter a seasonal accumulation period due to weaker downstream demand, with spot prices under pressure but aligning with seasonal changes [4] - Long-term, oil prices are expected to have limited downside, providing some support for PTA costs, and the long-term supply-demand balance for PTA is anticipated to improve, leading to a rise in future contract price [4]