看好“跨年行情”的五个理由

Market Overview - The current state of the A-share market shows signs of high volatility, with major indices experiencing fluctuations at high levels since November, leading to investor uncertainty about the potential for a "cross-year market" [1] - The economic fundamentals have not shown significant improvement, and counter-cyclical policies are still in effect, resulting in a loose liquidity environment and a notable increase in risk appetite [4][7] Economic Indicators - The actual GDP growth for 2023 is projected at 5.4%, with nominal GDP growth at 4.16% [6] - The manufacturing PMI has remained below the 50 mark for eight consecutive months, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector [7] - Social retail sales have been declining since June, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.2% reported [6][7] Policy Environment - A series of counter-cyclical policies have been implemented since September 2024, including interest rate cuts and increased fiscal support for infrastructure and real estate [7][8] - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary policies to enhance macroeconomic governance [8] Investment Dynamics - Incremental capital is entering the A-share market, driven by insurance funds and quantitative private equity, with insurance capital's market allocation reaching 5.59 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.49 trillion yuan from the end of 2024 [13][16] - The adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies is expected to bring over 100 billion yuan in new capital to the A-share market [16] Valuation Metrics - The current valuation of the A-share market is considered slightly high, with the 10-year PE-TTM percentile at 85.91% [19] - The risk premium, which measures the attractiveness of stocks relative to bonds, is at 54.01%, indicating that the overall valuation remains acceptable [20] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the resistance line formed by the highs of 2007 and 2015, which may now serve as a support line for the current market trend [23] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests focusing on growth sectors over dividend stocks, with key areas including technology, lithium batteries, non-ferrous metals, and innovative pharmaceuticals [26]