宝城期货：锰硅承压走低

Core Viewpoint - Since December, manganese silicon futures and spot prices have rebounded from low levels, with the main contract increasing by nearly 200 yuan/ton, although the overall increase in spot prices has not matched that of futures, leading to a weak and stable basis [1] Supply Constraints - Despite widespread losses among manganese silicon enterprises and weakened production willingness, the reduction in output from major production areas has been limited, resulting in no significant alleviation of supply pressure. As of the week ending December 12, the operating rate of 187 independent manganese silicon enterprises was 36.85%, with an average daily output of 27,035 tons, continuing to decline since mid-September, with a cumulative decrease of 10.53 percentage points and 3,555 tons [2] - The overall manganese silicon production remains close to last year's levels, despite a significant year-on-year decline in operating rates by 8.18 percentage points. The daily average output has only decreased by 1,185 tons compared to the same period last year. In Inner Mongolia, the daily average output remains stable at 13,840 tons, down 1,040 tons from previous highs, and slightly down 800 tons year-on-year [2] Inventory Levels - As of the week ending December 12, the total inventory of manganese silicon production enterprises reached 382,000 tons, setting a new historical record. Inventory accumulation is evident across all regions, particularly in major production areas. In Ningxia, the latest inventory reached 285,500 tons, an increase of 195,500 tons from previous lows, continuously hitting record highs [3] - The increase in inventory is primarily due to significantly weakened demand, leading to passive accumulation. Inner Mongolia's inventory increased by 22,000 tons, mainly due to weak terminal demand. Other regions also saw inventory increases, but the absolute growth was not substantial [3] Demand Performance - As of the week ending December 12, only 35.93% of the 247 sample steel mills were profitable, a continuous decline since mid-August, down 32.47 percentage points and significantly lower than the same period last year. The profitability of major steel products has not improved, with many long-process steel mills in North China still in a loss state [4] - The overall profitability of steel mills remains poor, and with the seasonal downturn in the steel market, manganese silicon demand is expected to remain weak in the short term. Despite a market sentiment recovery driving manganese silicon prices up from low levels, limited supply reduction and ongoing weak demand indicate that the industry’s supply-demand dynamics have not improved [4]