美CPI降温别高兴太早：经济学家怀疑政府关门导致数据失真

Core Insights - The November core inflation unexpectedly dropped to its lowest level in over four years, raising skepticism among economists due to data collection issues caused by a prolonged government shutdown [1][3] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest growth rate since March 2021, while the overall CPI increased by 2.7%, both below economists' expectations [1][3] Data Collection Issues - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) faced significant data collection challenges due to a 43-day government shutdown, which hindered the collection of October price data, leading to potential distortions in both year-on-year and month-on-month data [3][4] - Economists criticized the BLS for assuming zero growth in rental prices for October, which artificially lowered the November inflation figures [3][6] Market Reactions - Despite doubts about the reliability of the data, U.S. stock markets rebounded following the CPI release, with the three major indices opening higher [3][8] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in January increased slightly to about 22%, with expectations for two rate cuts in 2026 [3][8] Housing Costs Concerns - Housing costs emerged as a major point of contention, with a year-on-year increase of only 3%, the smallest in over four years, raising questions about the accuracy of the inflation data [9][10] - The report indicated that core goods prices rose by 1.4% year-on-year, while energy prices increased by 4.2%, highlighting the mixed signals in the inflation data [9][10] Economic Outlook - Economists expressed concerns that the data collection delays and the timing of data collection during discount periods could further distort the inflation figures [4][6] - The overall sentiment among market participants remains divided, with some viewing the data as a potential signal for the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts, while others caution against overreacting to potentially flawed data [8][10]